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| A REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN 2007 5/01/2008 |
| (2008-01-04) |
| Last updated: 2008-01-04 15:16 EET |
The year 2007 kicked off on a positive note for the European Union. On January 1st Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU, expending the union’s borders up to the Black Sea. This marked a milestone for the establishment of a new geopolitical space and for the citizens of the two countries.
Together with analyst Armand Gosu, editor in chief of the prestigious Romanian weekly newspaper “22”, we will try to bring to the forefront last year’s main events in the world of foreign affairs. We asked Armand Gosu what Romania’s and Bulgaria’s accession, completing the final enlargement wave that began in 2004, meant for the European Union?
“For Brussels, Romania’s and Bulgaria’s accession to the EU marks the maximum expansion of the EU’s borders eastwards. It is obvious that from now on, EU enlargement will be much slower. After Romania’s and Bulgaria’s accession, the EU became an important player in the Black Sea region, which is of fundamental importance for Western Europe. This region is a transit corridor for hydrocarbons, oil and natural gas. Europe’s energy independence depends on how well these transit areas operate.”
The year 2007 ended just as it started. After years of institutional crisis, in October European leaders said “Yes!”, in Lisbon, to the New Europe, passing the revised Constitutional Treaty. It was for the first time that Romania became, in Portugal’s capital city, an important player, called upon to have a say on the future of United Europe. Analyst Armand Gosu:
“For Romania this represents the climax of its close relationship with Western Europe. For the first time, Romania is part of the most important political-military and economic structures in the Western world. Romania is now facing the most positive outlook it has seen in its entire history.”
Throughout 2007, on the eastern border of Romania and the European Union, the Republic of Moldova continued to hover between East and West. Being closer to Moscow than to Brussels, Chisinau continued its ambiguous and unfriendly stance towards Romania. Romania, for its part, continued to grant Moldova assistance in order for the country to be democratized and join the EU. But did Chisinau take Romania up on its offer? Analyst Armand Gosu tries an answer:
“The Republic of Moldova didn’t see Romania as its advocate in relations with the EU. Brussels didn’t take into consideration the possibility for Moldova to join the EU, either. Practically, all that Moldova can get is a co-operation agreement and an active policy within the EU’s European Neighborhood Policy, and nothing more. Moldova should now cope with far more complicated problems, especially relating to the Transdniester conflict.”
However, the Moldovan communist authorities didn’t make any progress on the Transdniester issue, either, most likely letting Moscow decide the date and formula for settling a conflict – one which reminds us of another important topic during 2007, namely Kosovo. Armand Gosu:
“As regards frozen conflicts, I think Russia will not be able to impose the adoption of the same solution, as was seen in the case of Kosovo. We might enter the final stage of the process of settling the conflict. But this will depend on Chisinau, as its anti-Bucharest policy has a positive impact on its relations with Moscow. The establishment of a confederation, which will finally sanction the national integrity of the Republic of Moldova, is a plausible idea. “
In 2007, the Russian Federation continued to pursue the same policy of exerting its influence in former Soviet areas. At the same time, Russia’s relations with the West soured, after its withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Political analysts don’t expect major changes in Russia’s policy in the near future, even though Vladimir Putin will not run in the presidential race in Russia in 2008.
Armand Gosu:
“Russia will try to consolidate its political and economic position in the former Soviet area and, depending on its capacity, will try to export capital outside its borders and outside the former Soviet area, to Central and Western Europe. It will probably do this successfully, as has done so far. In its attempt to expand eastward, Russia will lay special emphasis on Gazprom and the big hydrocarbon companies.”
Russia will also try to impose the adoption of solutions similar to that in Kosovo, in the case of frozen conflicts in Transniester, Abhazia and North Ossetia. Armand Gosu believes that this parallel will not convince the West to give in:
“It is a very painful dossier for Serbia and of special interest for Russia which (we shouldn’t forget) has a long tradition of exerting its influence in the Balkans. It is clear the West wants to integrate this area into its structures. It is also clear Russia lacks the stamina to counterpoise the Western influence in the former soviet countries; in the long run the solution put forwards by the Albanian leaders in Kosovo allows for an extremely broad autonomy or even to independence, under various guises.”
Iraq was another hotbed of interethnic conflicts in 2007 that resulted in hundreds of victims. There discussions on the withdrawal of the international coalition forces were held against the backdrop of bloody conflicts on the ground. However, Armand Gosu believes that
“2007 meant a turning point for Iraq: for the first time ever since the country’s invasion by coalition forces, it has an administration that succeeded to restore order in Iraq, meaning that we have seen less terrorist attacks in the country. Soon Iraq will be able to stand on its own feet, which means that the change in the American policy in early 2007 turned out to be a good thing for that country. But it is not Iraq that concerns me, but Afghanistan, where it was not an American-led coalition that intervened, but NATO. There things are getting worse. Also deeply worrying is everything related to the Iranian nuclear dossier.”
Back in Europe, headline-grabbing events were related to Romanian migrants in Italy, whose EU citizen rights were temporarily curtailed in the wake of a series of crimes committed by their fellow nationals. Analyst Armand Gosu thinks these people are both Romanians and Europeans, with their own problems that will have to be sorted out both by Romania and the EU. Armand Gosu :
“ I think the crimes committed by Romanians in foreign countries are isolated cases and have been hyped-up by the media – this was all part of political maneuvering in Italy. I believe Romanian migrants are wanted in some countries as they have a European cultural background, are civilized and show respect for work. Spain’s 0 and Italy’s economic growth wouldn’t have been possible without the contribution of Romanians. Romanians who do their job over there won’t have to suffer because of the press campaign. We over here in Romania should be grateful to those people: without their contribution to the country’s welfare, Romania would be uglier and poorer.”
(Valentin Tigau)
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