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| Chances of a Pro-European Coalition in the Republic of Moldova 09/12/2010 |
| (2010-12-09) |
| Last updated: 2010-12-13 16:15 EET |
The diplomatic pilgrimage in Chisinau these days confirms the opinion of analysts that the parliamentary elections of November 28th were not only a political, but also a geopolitical ballot. The negotiations aimed to form a new majority held by the four parliamentary parties are carefully monitored and subtly encouraged both from the East and the West.
The first to come to Chisinau last Sunday was Russian president’s chief of staff Sergey Naryshkin, who mediated between the pro-Russian Communists’ Party and the center-left Democratic Party, itself led by reformed communists. On Wednesday, the Polish and Swedish foreign ministers Radoslaw Sikorski and Carl Bildt respectively urged the political class in Chisinau to go ahead with the reforms and democratization efforts fostered by the Alliance for European Integration over the last year, an alliance in which the democrats were associated with the liberal-democrats and the liberals.
The president of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, and the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Füle, have conveyed a similar message. Meanwhile, the leaders of the three parties that are members of the Alliance, the liberal-democrat Vlad Filat, the democrat marian Lupu and the liberal Mihai Ghimpu have had a first round of talks.
According to our correspondent to Chisinau, they seem to have found some common standpoints in the bid to keep the ruling coalition together. But the talks promise to be long-lasting and are jeopardized by the announcement of the democrats continuing their talks with the communists as well. As an eloquent detail, Lupu has admitted that there are “certain common priorities” with the Liberal-Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, but he has warned that the same priorities were also identified in the dialogue with his former communist party comrades, a dialogue which he wishes to continue.
Whether cynical or simply realistic, political pundits say that mathematics will prevail in the end. At first sight more profitable, a coalition between the communists and the democrats will equally share the ministerial seats. A coalition made up of the Democratic Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party and the Liberal Party would have to divide the portfolios between them. The Constitution, however, forces the Democratic Party to make some other calculations, too. The votes of at least 61 of the 101 deputies are needed for Parliament to elect a new president.
A possible alliance between the Communists Party and the Democratic Party would lack four votes to elect the head of state, while the triad made up of the Liberal-Democratic Party, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Party would only be two votes short of electing their president. The political and geopolitical future of the Republic of Moldova might thus be decided by just a few deputies willing to swap camps, which would come as no surprise in a state that has been hesitantly experimenting with democracy and pluralism for almost 20 years.
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