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| POSITIVE FORECAST UNTIL 2013 (03.04.2007) |
| (2007-04-03) |
| Last updated: 2007-04-03 15:39 EET |
The future of the Romanian economy holds promises in store, says Japanese economist Hiromasa Kubo, a professor with the University of Kobe and head of Japan’s own European Institute. In his view, Romania has seen intense transformations ever since the early 1990’s, after the Communist regime was ousted. The authorities and ordinary citizens have made great efforts to change the economic system. As a result, current macroeconomic indexes are positive. A 7.7% economic growth was registered last year, and a growth of 6.5% is expected this year. Professor Kubo believes that Romania resembles Thailand as far as their booming economies are concerned.
But as a EU member, Romania must primarily look to community indexes in order to face up to the competition on the common market. The European Commission has similarly sent over good news. The Brussels executive estimates that until 2013, Bucharest could register a 10% GDP growth, if it applies Union norms and sensibly spends the money that will come from Brussels over the coming years. The hefty funds stand at about 28-30 billion euros between 2007 and 2013, which would translate as a daily expenditure of 8.5 million euros. The majority of the funds, worth more than 17 billion euros, will go towards infrastructure, while the remaining 11 billion euros will be poured into the agriculture and rural development.
In another move, given that imports are growing faster than exports, Romania’s current account deficit must be closely followed. This is estimated to increase from 10.3% in 2006 to 10.5% in 2007. But the increase does not reflect a crisis of economic competitiveness, but the very strong development of local demand. To this we can add a high domestic consumption, increased incomes, the appreciation of the national currency and the appearance of a ‘consumer class’, after years of enforced austerity. As compared to EU states, Romania fares well as far as the unemployment rate is concerned. This is slightly lower in comparison to the Community average. What is disquieting, however, is that people under 25 make up the most unprivileged category. From this point of view Romania holds one of the lowest places in Europe after Poland and Greece.
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2025-04-03
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