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AN OPTIMISTIC INFLATION TARGET (1.08.07)
(2007-08-01)
Last updated: 2007-08-02 14:49 EET Print
In the early 1990s, when the annual inflation rate stood at 400%, few people could say that it would drop to decent, that is European, levels in within a decade. The Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania has just established that the targeted inflation rate for 2009 is 3.5%. This target was set taking into account the need to continue the disinflation process in the medium run in keeping with the established calendar for the introduction of the European currency, the euro. The targeted figure also takes into consideration the latest positive economic projections and the risks and uncertainties with regard to the development of the inflation rate in the medium run. To these add factors outside the scope of the central bank, including pressures as a result of the increase in people’s incomes which is not backed sufficiently by a growth in productivity, the increase in government spending, the expected rise in the price of farm products given the prolonged draught faced by Romania and the investors’ attitude towards emerging markets, including the Romanian market. The National Bank says the established target, which was also assumed by the government, meets the need to have a sustainable inflation level supported by a whole range of appropriate macro-economic policies. It is worth mentioning that the inflation rate for this year had been set at 4%, but the National Bank is now expecting an even lower percentage of 3.7%.

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