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| THE ROMANIAN CURRENCY IS GETTING STRONGER AND STRONGER (3.07.07) |
| (2007-07-03) |
| Last updated: 2007-07-04 13:57 EET |
The Romanian currency has seen constant appreciation, some might even call it “aggressive “, against the euro and the US dollar. Since the beginning of the year, the leu has appreciated by 8% to reach its highest level compared to the euro in the last 5 years and one month. People who are considering changing their savings into euros or dollars are confused and don’t know how much they should wait until doing so, so as not to lose money over the exchange.
Analysts with the prestigious foreign company East Capital are not very specific either. The experts of this company specialised in the management of open investment funds on east European markets estimate that the Romanian currency will appreciate significantly in the long run, but say that it may fluctuate in the short run. And here’s their explanation: apparently, for the states who have joined the European Union recently, therefore also for Romania, the monetary appreciation is an important element of the transition period, while the considerable consolidation of their currencies is the result of the natural development of their economies.
It’s true that the upward trend seen by the leu recently was caused by a number of factors with immediate impact such as speculative sales or the capital inflow, as well as low inflation rates, the relatively low public debt and the amount of foreign investment. In fact, foreign investors still see Romania as a potential ”tiger” whose economic development has not been affected by the disturbances on the political scene this year. The Romanian currency, say East Capital experts, is a success story that can cross Romania’s borders. Corporate bonds currently listed on foreign stock exchange markets account for over 1.25 billion euros.
According to prime minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, while the leu’s appreciation will affect exports, it will also stimulate investors to find solutions to increase productivity and will allow Romanians to purchase import goods and services at lower prices. However, if the leu continues to appreciate considerably and this development is the result of specific factors and not of a real economic growth, the National Bank of Romania might intervene on the currency market, something it hasn’t done so far.
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