The Social Liberal Union, comprising the Social Democrats, the Liberals, the Conservatives and the National Union for the Progress of Romania, is expected to garner over 60% of the votes, while the Right Romania Alliance, with the pro-presidential Liberal Democratic Party at its core, stands at 17-19% in polls. But sociologists explain that interviewees tend to say they will vote for the favourites, while the turnout will be low, which will lead to smaller scores for the winners and improve the results of their challengers. Even so, the Social Liberal Union is expected to win a comfortable majority in Parliament, where, apart from the two major alliances, two other parties are likely to win seats: the populist Party of the People, with an estimated 10 to 12% in voters’ preferences, and the Democratic Union of Ethnic Hungarians in Romania, with 5%.

The uninominal vote in constituencies will be followed by a redistribution of seats, according to the national performance of each party or alliance.

But with the election results quite predictable, the question is what will happen after the ballot. A first scenario is that the Social Liberal Union fails to win the absolute majority, enabling president Traian Basescu to appoint a prime minister from another party or alliance. A second, equally interesting scenario, is that the Union gets absolute majority in Parliament, and the president nominates a prime minister from its ranks, but not the one proposed by the winners.

While such a decision would not come against the Constitution, it will break with the traditional political practices, and in this case the more radical Social Liberal leaders threaten to launch a third impeachment procedure against president Basescu. Romania would thus return to the roots of this summer’s political conflict, jeopardizing an already fragile political and economic stability.