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A NEW EVALUATION 27/04/2010 |
(2010-04-27) |
Last updated: 2010-05-03 13:26 EET |
The latest developments connected to the broader macroeconomic context will also be analysed. Analysts believe this round of talks will be more difficult than before because the figures related to budget revenues reported in the first months of the year are below the estimated figures, and the economy is not showing signs of recovery yet. In fact, the International Monetary Fund has recently downgraded its forecast about Romania’s economic growth in 2010 from 1.3% to 0.8%. Razvan Voican, the deputy editor-in-chief of the daily paper Ziarul Financiar, explains:
“This assessment mission is probably the most complex so far. We know the Fund was more lenient during its previous missions because of the political problems Romania was going through, but this time there have been many delays which cannot be ignored, mainly the cut in public spending, more precisely the staff related spending. In the first three months of the year, the government did little more than discussing and analysing how many people should be made redundant in the budgetary sector. In the meantime, it continued to accumulate debt in the private sector, which cannot recover its money from the state. That complicates the financial blockage in the economy even more and compounds the problem. The bleaker economic growth forecast will also make it difficult to meet the targeted budget deficit of 5.9% of the GDP.”
The Romanian authorities have also registered big delays in the legal area. Razvan Voican again:
“In the legal area, the government only enforced the fiscal accountability law, whose consequences will probably become visible in one year. There are still projects related to the state payment scheme and the draft pension system which need to be completed by summer.”
Depending on the outcome of the evaluation, the IMF board will decided in June whether Romania will receive the 5th payment of its loan worth 850 million Euros. So far, Bucharest has received 11.7 billion euros of the total foreign funding package of 20 billion Euros signed with the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the World Bank.
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