The IMF and the Romanian Finance Ministry have reached an agreement on the main provisions of the 2010 budget, providing for a deficit of 5.9% of the GDP. The announcement has been made by the head of the IMF mission in Romania, Jeffrey Franks, who has pointed out that the challenge is that the budget be submitted to Parliament for approval as soon as possible. The IMF official has announced that an IMF delegation will come to Romania in January to assess the agreement. He has gone on to say that the IMF will release the third installment after the evaluation has been completed and the 2010 budget has been passed. He also said that the fourth installment might be released ahead of term.
In turn, Romanian Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea has said that he wants the 2010 budget to be technically finalized and submitted to Parliament by Christmas, and that he hopes for the new government to take office until then. According to the Romanian official, the Finance Ministry is working out the funding strategy for the first term of 2010 and is taking into account the IMF installments too. Pogea has made it clear that all financial resources have been provided for December 2009, even in the absence of IMF funding. Romania has so far received two installments amounting to nearly seven billion Euros, out of the approximately 13 billion Euros provided by the Fund. The third installment of 1.5 billion Euros was scheduled for December, and the fourth installment of over 800 million Euros was due in March 2010.
In another development, a World Bank report says that Romania lies in the area with the worst recession. Such countries as Romania and some Baltic states, where most banks are foreign, have succeeded in postponing their repayment deadlines through mother banks. The World Bank report also says that in 2008, bad loans in Romania accounted for 9.8% of all loans. A survey of the degree of vulnerability puts Romania in the third group in a list of five groups. Attending the conference of the World Bank, the president of the Buisness Association, Florin Pogonaru, said that 2010 would have a bad start, but a good ending. He called on the state to support the business environment. In turn, the World Bank chief economist for Romania, Catalin Paun, said that the authorities should invest in public resources, particularly in areas with a big development potential and ensure a closer connection between resources and performance in the public sector.
The conclusion of the debates was that the EU integration process was a positive one, even if the economy had become more vulnerable, but all in all, pluses are bigger than minuses. The World Bank official estimates that next year, the Romanian economy might grow by 0.5%-2%, depending on how well the economy picks up in developed countries.
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