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| SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 09/12/2009 |
| (2009-12-09) |
| Last updated: 2009-12-10 11:14 EET |
According to data provided by the National Employment Agency, the number of the unemployed in Romania in November exceeded 680 thousand, the highest figure in the past 5 years and 8 months.
The unemployment rate stood at 7.5% and will continue to grow in the first quarter of the year 2010. Also, a study developed by the Manpower human resources company shows that the number of the unemployed in Romania will continue to grow, and in the first quarter of 2010 the situation will remain somehow stable only for those who are currently employed. According to the study, conducted in 35 countries, Romania ranks last in the world with regard to employment next year. Romanian employers are among the most pessimistic. Approximately 60% of them do not envisage any change and a quarter expect more redundancies. The General Manager of Manpower, Camelia Stanculescu explains:
“In Romania the downturn started later and that is why recovery will come later. If we look at other European countries, the situation started to worsen two or three quarters before we started feeling the crisis in Romania, and there are many of these countries that have been stable for quite some time now, and some of them have even registered growth. Also, the process of restructuring companies in these countries took place at a faster pace. In Romania, reorganisation at company level started later.”
Despite pessimistic forecasts regarding unemployment, the president of the National Employment Agency, Sillviu Bian, says that Romania is doing pretty well as compared to other European countries, given that the European average is 9.5%. He is also confident that things will get better on the labour market in 2010. Silviu Bian:
“According to estimates by specialised institutions and EU forecasts, the crisis has been overcome and there will be economic growth, though not spectacular. Consequently, the unemployment rate will drop."
The IMF Representative for Romania, Tony Lybek, does not share this optimism and estimates an unemployment rate of 9 to 10%. Moreover, he has warned that the IMF is not willing to renegotiate the budget deficit target of 5.9% of the GDP agreed upon with Romania for next year, as it has already been revised for 2009 from 4.6% to 7.3% of the GDP, due to changes in the macroeconomic framework.
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