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| THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY 29/09/2009 |
| (2009-09-29) |
| Last updated: 2009-09-30 13:39 EET |
The Commission also shows the inflation rate will stand at 4.3% at the end of the year, below the earlier estimates of 4.5%. The commission has maintained the forecasts for the following years, as shown in its spring report, saying prices will continue to go down. Price hikes will not exceed 3.5% in 2010, and will go down to 2% by 2014. The unemployment rate will stand at 7.6% this year, by 3% higher than in 2008. The total number of the officially registered unemployed will stand at some 700 thousand by the end of the year, the Commission also shows.
As regards salaries, the commission estimates they will go down by 2% in 2009, will remain unchanged in 2010 and will slightly increase in 2011. The Employers’ Associations agree to the authorities’ decision to increase the minimum wage in the economy from 650 lei (some 150 Euros) up to 705 lei, provided all other salaries are frozen until Romania overcomes the crisis. In turn, trade unions want decision makers to consider the whole salary policy in Romania when tackling that issue.
In another move, the National Forecast Commission says the construction sector will be the engine of economic recovery, with some analysts saying however that industry will be the key to economic recovery next year. The Economist Intelligence Unit shows in a report that Romania’s national currency, the leu, continues to be vulnerable to pressure and might depreciate if the economic and political situation worsens dramatically in the following months.
On Monday, the National Bank of Romania announced, for a 5th session in a row, a reference exchange rate of only 4.19 lei for one Euro, thus reaching the lowest level in the past three months. Analysts say the leu’s gaining ground against the Euro was due to the indirect intervention of the Central Bank. The Economist Intelligence Unit says in order to be able to comply with the commitments it has made to the IMF, in 2010 Romania will have no other solution than increase the main taxes, namely the VAT and the income tax.
The opinion is widely shared by Romanian analysts, who say the situation has been sparked by the government’s inability to slash public spending during the economic crisis. Some analysts say the best solution would be to increase the VAT and thus reduce consumption. Others reject the measure, saying it will impact people in the low income bracket. In exchange, those analysts suggest that the government should give up the flat tax or collect taxes on high incomes and on wealth.
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