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| THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE CRISIS 09/09/2009 |
| (2009-09-10) |
| Last updated: 2009-09-10 13:42 EET |
He emphasised the countless risks that still threaten the world economy, and particularly the risk that economic recovery strategies applied around the world might prove unsustainable.
The European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, Joaquin Almunia, also believes the recovery is not definitive, and warns against the risk of relapse, although the free falling of the economy has so far been kept under control. In turn, the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, believes that, while the prospects of the world economy have improved, policy-makers cannot afford to relax, but must continue to reform the financial system.
On a more optimistic tone, the chief of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn estimated that the global economy might heal one quarter earlier than initially forecast, namely in early 2010, and announced that the Fund’s estimates might see an upward adjustment. According to a survey worked out by the American agency Migration Policy Institute, less people choose to work abroad because of the global recession, and immigrants are more threatened to lose their jobs, because more often than not they work in the industries the most vulnerable to the recession, namely constructions and the hospitality industry. According to the same survey, the number of Romanians seeking employment in Spain has dropped by 60% compared to last year. A poll conducted by NetJobs.ro reveals that over 45% of the Romanians expect the labour market to recover in the next 6 months, and 41% believe this would take between 6 months and one year.
The sectors with the best chances to emerge from recession are agriculture, the internet, constructions, transports and logistics. Only 7% of the Romanians believe the labour market will regain strength in about two years, and 6% of the respondents said recovery would take more than two years. The Romanian labour minister Marian Sarbu announced that unemployment was still under control in Romania, and explained that the number of the unemployed at the end of this year should not exceed 620 thousand, as forecast. According to statistics, the number of the unemployed in Romania in late August was over 600 thousand.
Eurostat figures indicate that in the first half of the year Romania had the lowest increase of the unemployment rate in the EU, namely from 5.7% in January-March 2008 to 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009. Another ranking, released by the World Economic Forum, sees Romania as the 64th most competitive economy out of 133 states. But although the country has move up four places in this standing, it still received poor scores for areas such as infrastructure, healthcare or education.
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