It is still difficult to gauge the political impact of Sorin Frunzaverde’s resignation from the Liberal Democratic Party, the main ruling body in Romania. One of the party’s founders and something of a figurehead, Frunzaverde recently joined the National Liberal Party, in opposition. The negative effects of this move will soon be felt during the June local elections and the parliamentary elections slated for autumn. The Liberal Democrats, whose approval rating has plummeted, are now struggling to rescue their image as a closely-knit group which they have presented to the public for years.
In the short run, the consequences of this unexpected political move are visible at institutional level. If any of Frunzaverde’s fellow senators follow suit, the ruling coalition, made up of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Union of Ethnic Hungarians in Romania and the National Union for the Progress of Romania, will lose its Senate majority, in favor of the Social-Liberal opposition. There is, however, one condition for the Opposition to gain the upper hand in the Senate – it needs to draw independent senator Mircea Geoana into the fold, a former Social Democrat leader and a presidential candidate in the 2009 election. Leading Liberal Democrat senator Cristian Radulescu said that the regime will try to negotiate the passing of important bills with the support of the Opposition, or will try to attract the votes of unaffiliated senators. Cristian Radulescu:
"In line with laws and priorities, we will try to strike a deal with opposition members who have said they would vote on certain projects, such as the mechanism for cooperation, control and verification of the judiciary. But as a whole, we will try to get several votes in our favor, and these will come from outside the coalition."
The Leader of the Liberal Senators, Puiu Hasotti, has confirmed that the elected members of the Social Liberal Union will go to the Senate on Monday, despite the parliamentary strike that started 2 months ago. They will vote on the Civil Code and the Notaries Public Law. Opposition leaders, Social-Democrat Victor Ponta and Liberal Crin Antonescu have warned, however, that, once the status quo is modified, MPs from the Social Liberal Union will end the strike and attack by blocking bills they do not agree on.
The Senate’s problems have not spread to the Deputy Chamber, although the members’ extended absence has taken its toll on the quorum. The current situation in the Senate shows the perverse effects of political migration – a chronic phenomenon that everybody has attacked but which nobody has actually tried to put an end to. Frail majorities are the outcome of opportunistic political migration between parties. One potential solution would be for politicians who resign from their party to be stripped of their status as MPs.
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