| Transdnestr, a Frozen Conflict |
| (2012-03-02) |
| Last updated: 2012-03-05 16:29 EET |
Two decades have passed since the end of the armed conflict in which the Republic of Moldova lost control of Transdnestr, a pro-Russian break-away region, on its eastern side. The conflict left several hundred dead, a self-proclaimed republic which has no international recognition, and Russian troops, which ensured the success of separatists with their direct intervention.
In 1999, at the OSCE summit in Istanbul, Moscow promised to withdraw its troops, but has failed to do so. Transdniestr was led for 20 years with an iron hand by Igor Smirnoff, a former Soviet apparatchik. Last year, in an election which was considered valid only by Russia, a new leader was elected, Evgenyi Shevchuk. His stance towards the Republic of Moldova is less rigid, if not quite friendly, and that has revived hopes that a real and effective dialog can unfold between Chisinau and Tiraspol, the seat of governance in Transdniestr.
Bilateral discussions have been held in Dublin, mediated by the Irish presidency of the OSCE, which the latter considers to be on the right track. This was a second round of official negotiations after an interruption of six years. A future round is scheduled for April, to be held in Vienna in the 5 plus 2 formula: Moldova, Transdniestr, the OSCE, Russia and the Ukraine, plus the US and EU as observers.
The new leader in Transdnestr is committed to being under Russia’s protective umbrella politically, militarily and economically. His solution to the conflict is cooperation between Chisinau and Tiraspol in a future Eurasian Union, which would be created by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus by 2015. Pro-European forces in Chisinau which have removed from power the communists seem decided to keep Moldova on a European trajectory, in spite of internal dissent, with reforms that go towards integration.
On the other hand, however, there are analysts who are under no illusion that the new negotiations will automatically solve this conflict, the closest to Europe’s borders. They even speculate that Russia and Western countries prefer this conflict is better left frozen, just like the one in Nagorno-Karabach between Armenia and Azerbaidjan, since no one knows how to solve it. One possible solution is putting together a federation, which would allow the central government to exercise a measure of control over Transdnestr.
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2025-04-03
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