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| NATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR A GLOBAL CRISIS 22/05/09 |
| (2009-05-22) |
| Last updated: 2009-05-25 12:24 EET |
The governor of Romania, Mugur Isarescu, has given hope to Romanians. He says the peak of recession was overcome and all we need right now is “confidence, confidence and confidence”.
Against the backdrop of the world economic and financial crisis, the governor of the Romanian Central Bank, Mugur Isarescu, on Tuesday continued the series of statements aimed at encouraging Romanians. At the Central and South East European Financial Forum hosted by Bucharest, Isarescu confirmed that the Romanian economy reacted surprisingly well to the difficult process of adjustment it had undergone over the past months. He expressed hope that Romania would end 2009 with a light economic growth, given that in four out of the five components of the crisis, the critical point was overcome. Mugur Isarescu:
“We can say the crisis has five components. In my opinion, the first- namely the crisis of the exchange rate- was overcome. As for the second one- the crisis of the balance of payments, and by this I mean a big deficit that has to be corrected, it has also been overcome. Regarding the third one- the inflation- the most difficult moment has already been dealt with and we expect a drop in prices. As to the fourth component – the crisis of liquidities – I again believe that it has been overcome. We are left with the fifth component- namely economic growth that we have to deal with.”
Another economist who attended the Forum in Bucharest, Tony Lybeck, the IMF representative for Romania and Bulgaria, has issued a more cautious message. He says the Romanian economy will recover and will only grow in the second quarter of 2010. Therefore, in one year time, Romanians will see things improving. The former chief economist of the World Bank and winner of the Nobel prize for economy, Joseph Stiglitz, also believes that the situation is not as bad as it might seem. He said that the measures and regulations taken by the Romanian central bank officials were good and that Romania was not on the list of countries that had been strongly hit by the international financial crisis.
Other strengths Romania boasts are the flexibility of the exchange rate, its EU membership and the fact that, at the beginning of the crisis, the level of demand was high. A World Bank report made public on Thursday confirms these statements. It reads that things in Romania were ok, given that the volume of exports at the onset of the world crisis was not very high. Consequently, Romania has not been as affected as Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Estonia. The way out of the crisis, according to the latest World Bank report, is to apply such social policies that should attenuate the strong impact of unemployment and to implement instruments to regain trust on the financial market.
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