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| BETWEEN RECESSION AND LOAN AGREEMENT WITH IMF 19/03/2009 |
| (2009-03-19) |
| Last updated: 2009-03-20 14:01 EET |
The Romanian economy, one of the most dynamic in the EU in 2008, will shrink and that will have some sharper deficits. Here is Romania's representative to the IMF, Mihai Tanasescu:
''We are witnessing a general economic growth drop in Europe and throughout the world; the Romanian economy has also been affected. Without mentioning any figures, Romania's economic drop this year will be quite significant, which turns this agreement with the IMF into an income buffer, able to balance this quick global economic downturn.''
The latest forecasts seem to have replaced the optimistic estimations on which the Government based this year's budget, while the expected economic growth of 2.5% risks being harshly contradicted by reality. Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea openly admits it:
''I'm not afraid to say it, if the situation worsens, we will revise our prospective growth figures for the worse. How could I ever state, in my capacity as finance minister, that public revenue will go up in Romania, when in fact business dynamics are pointing downwards. As regards economic structure, our economy is not stable yet, it is still very vulnerable. You should not be surprised if the economic growth rate goes down from 2% to below zero.''
Authorities have openly admitted, for the first time, to an economic downturn,'' the daily paper ZIUA headlines, referring to the bad news given by the IMF about the country having entered recession. Without being officially confirmed, the figures made public by the media are likely to be a cause for concern – negative growth of 4% and a budget deficit of 4.7% in 2009.
''The IMF negotiates based on a severe recession scenario'', Romania Libera confirms. The paper quotes economic analysts as saying that the decrease in the GDP will be the consequence of lower consumption and investment. The daily Cotidianul writes, on a pessimistic note, about the economic situation and the political disagreements that accompany it , under the heading ''The four prime ministers of the negative 4 Apocalypse''. The paper goes on saying that PM Emil Boc, Social Democratic leader Mircea Geoana, President Traian Basescu and the IMF are taking Romania to the brink of crisis: 4% negative growth, 4.7% deficit and an 18-billion euro loan. '' The Gandul daily doesn't harbor good news either. According to the paper, banks don't seen eager to lower interest rates, even though the agreement with the IMF is to their advantage.
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