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A PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLD FOR THE ROMANIAN LEU 06/01/2009 |
(2009-01-06) |
Last updated: 2009-01-07 16:36 EET |
Romania’s national currency, the Leu has stepped off on the wrong foot in 2009, and the national bank announced on Tuesday an exchange rate of 4.02 lei for one Euro, a level it hadn’t reached since November 2004. Pundits’ estimates aren’t very optimistic either, at least for the first half of 2009. Here is financial-banking analyst Dragos Cabat.
“In the first quarter of this year we’ll be seeing the euro rising up to 4.15 - 4.2 or even 4.25 lei by March or April. This is a considerable depreciation of the Leu, worse than it should have been as to the balance value. After that period the leu will recover slightly, to end the year around the value it has now, of 4 Lei for an euro.
A weaker national currency will automatically lead to hiked prices particularly of imported goods. Romanians will also pay higher fees for electricity, gas, water and heat, as they are calculated in euros. Excises are also bound to increase triggering a chain reaction for excised products. The Romanians who have got loans in euros will have to pay higher installments.
Exporters are among those to benefit from the situation, but we cannot say the same thing about importers who will feel the effects of a weaker local currency the hard way. The phenomenon will also reduce the country’s foreign deficit. Beginning with the first day of the year, people with bank deposits will not pay taxes on interests collected on them. Tax advisor Ruxandra Jianu told us about some of the categories of incomes that are exempt from duties.
“Term deposits made starting January the 1st 2009 are exempt from tax duties and so are non-resident natural persons. Also as of January the 1st 2009, interest rates on term deposits are tax exempt as well.”
We asked bank advisor Ruxandra Jianu about revenues from transactions involving shares owned by Romanian companies.
“These are also exempt from taxes in 2009, to give an impetus to stock-exchange transactions. This will apply to stocks traded on the capital market not to other shares.”
‘A weak Leu will leave our pockets empty’ headline papers in Bucharest on Tuesday, pointing out to a shrinking national currency. According to the daily Ziarul Financiar, ‘an Euro traded for 4 lei is a heavy blow to debtors’ and the National Bank of Romania breaks bad news to those with loans in the European currency; they are in for higher monthly installments. Evenimentul Zilei headlines that a plummeting Leu will also bear on our living standard forecasting further depreciation of the currency down to 20 bani by March 2009.
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