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| THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA MAINTAINS THE MONETARY POLICY INTEREST RATE 26/09/2008 |
| (2008-09-26) |
| Last updated: 2008-09-29 14:50 EET |
Analysts estimate that in the next period, we might witness a change of the intervention interest rate and the interest rates practiced by trading banks might paradoxically keep increasing, both those in lei and in foreign currency. Keeping the key interest rate at 10.25% confirms the expectations of the financial-banking analysts, who anticipated that the central bank would maintain the present rate after it had increased it by 0.25% in July for the seventh time running. Analysts point out that the National Bank of Romania could not increase the interest rate under the current circumstances with the inflation rate going down, but it could not reduce it either, because of the uncertain situation on the international financial markets. Some experts estimate that the key interest rate might repeatedly be reduced in the future. Economic analyst Lucian Anghel:
It is a signal that from now on we can expect cuts in the monetary policy interest rate. Interest rates are actually far higher than the monetary policy interest rate and I think they will be higher than 10.25% for a long period of time. In terms of the currency exchange rate, it remains to be seen if foreign investors , who were expecting an increase in the interest rate, will consider the rate as a sign which might trigger a slight depreciation.
Here is the opinion of economic analyst Radu Craciun:
The significance of the measure taken by the central bank is rather symbolical, suggesting the fact that the National Bank believes that in the next period, the inflation rate will see a downward trend. The decision is symbolical because, due to the lack of liquidities on the international markets, we practically witness the separation of commercial interest rates from the monetary policy interest rate of the National Bank. At the moment, they are higher than the monetary policy interest rates of the National Bank. That means that despite this constant level, it is possible that we further witness a slight increase of both interest rates in lei and of interest rates in euros.
In another development, minister of economy and finance Varujan Vosganian has announced the adoption of a package of measures designed to support the Romanian capital market affected by the crisis on the international financial markets. So, the income tax of investors on the capital market will be suspended in 2009, the one per cent tax on investments for a period longer than one year and the 16% tax on investments for a period smaller than one year will be scrapped. Furthermore, the National Commission of Chattels has decided to suspend the commissions for stock exchange transactions over October 1st-December 31st 2008 and to suspend for six months the quota on public sale offerings destined to listing new companies on the stock exchange.
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